Canada Post customers may face delays as tens of thousands of workers swear off overtime shifts, though a much bigger disruption was averted after the union backed down from a strike threat.
Nonetheless, the possibility of escalating job action could continue to scare off customers who pulled their shipments over the past couple of weeks, draining more business from the cash-strapped organization.
“I’m scared for the future,” said Edmonton mail carrier Dustin Ellis, who recently went on leave to study for a new career in social work.
He said the union should show more flexibility on key sticking points such as part-time weekend work and “dynamic routing”—where the path carriers take can vary day to day.
“They feel that everyone should be full time. That’s just not the reality of the world right now,” said the 11-year employee.
Late Thursday, the Canadian Union of Postal Workers called for a countrywide halt to any shifts beyond eight hours a day and 40 hours a week, saying negotiators will continue to review Canada Post’s latest contract offers.
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Lower letter and parcel volumes in recent weeks have likely made the workload easier to manage despite the overtime boycott, said Ian Lee, associate professor at Carleton University’s Sprott School of Business.
“I think there’s very little overtime,” he said of mail carriers.
Since it received a strike notice from the union Monday, the Crown corporation has delivered 1.3 million fewer parcels—about 50 percent—than in the same period last year, it said in an email.
“Customers have either moved to other delivery providers or have cancelled mailings to avoid their items being trapped by another disruption,” said spokeswoman Lisa Liu.
Any decline in sales will add to the more than $3.8 billion in operating losses Canada Post suffered between 2018 and September 2024.
The red ink has only flowed more freely since then, Lee said, pointing to a 32-day strike that ended in mid-December and to a $1-billion federal loan the next month.
Big firms have been reaching out to clients with messages to go paperless. Once they turn digital, some customers may not go back.
“The banks are doing it. I got one from TD for my Visa: ‘We urge you to contact us immediately to switch you onto electronic statements,’” said Lee, paraphrasing a recent email.
Canada Post faces a reckoning after a report last week found it was effectively “bankrupt” and in need of drastic reforms such as part-time weekend workers, post office closures and dynamic routing rather than the fixed routes that workers walk daily.
A mail decline has dragged on for nearly two decades, weighing on the Crown corporation’s finances. In 2023, the average household received two letters per week, down from seven per week in 2006, according to Canada Post figures.
While the number of letters delivered fell 55 percent to 2.2 billion from 5.5 billion per year in the same time period, the number of unionized employees decreased only seven percent to 55,813, annual reports show.
On the plus side for shippers and receivers, deliveries may not lag significantly in spite of Canada Post’s warning that “customers may experience delays.”
“There’s no need for overtime because the demand for the services of these workers has declined so precipitously,” Lee claimed.
Figures for package shipments paint another dire picture.
According to its 2023 annual report, the postal service’s share of the parcel market has plummeted to 29 percent from 62 percent before the COVID-19 pandemic, as Amazon and other competitors seized on skyrocketing demand for next-day doorstep deliveries.
A month-long strike during peak shipping season ahead of the winter holidays last year and the ongoing possibility of another disruption have pushed some shippers into the arms of private couriers.
“We hear more customers saying I’d like to connect with you because I want to make sure I have alternatives,” said Jean-Daniel Gervais, who heads business development at Montreal-based courier Intelcom, known outside Quebec as Dragonfly.
The union argued in an email that Canada Post has tried to “sow fear among employees, businesses, the government and the public” about the impact of a strike.
It expects to meet with Canada Post and federal mediators this weekend to work toward a deal.
Back in Edmonton, Dustin Ellis called on the union to hold a vote on Canada Post’s latest offer, which includes a nearly 14 percent wage hike over four years. Mail carriers typically make between $21 and $31 per hour, he said.
“Let us vote on a contract,” he said. “Let democracy prevail.”
