Commentary
Newly minted Prime Minister Mark Carney emerged relatively unscathed from his first meeting with President Donald Trump. Now, he must deal with a budding national unity crisis as separatist support in Western Canada has blossomed. If Carney had been hoping for a post-electoral grace period in office, those hopes have been dashed.
Angus Reid’s polling indicates that 36 percent of Albertans would support provincial independence if a referendum were to be held. Interestingly, nearly 50 percent of those polled support holding an independence referendum, though only a minority supports independence. Some opponents of the independence movement see a referendum as a means of settling the issue.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith brought provincial grievances to the fore with a fiery press conference, issuing several demands from Ottawa and vowing to form a panel dubbed “Alberta Next” to discuss the province’s future with Canada. The UCP government also tabled Bill 54, which lowers the bar for triggering citizens’ initiated referendums in Alberta to having a petition signed by 177,000 eligible voters. Although Premier Smith remains adamant that she doesn’t support provincial separatism, she also has stated she will respect the will of the citizens expressed in referendums. It appears almost certain that an independence referendum will be held in Alberta in 2026.
While 36 percent support for provincial independence isn’t enough for a referendum win, it’s a significant segment of the population and can’t be dismissed. Carney has a difficult task ahead of him in trying to defuse Western regionalism while remaining true to his policy statements. Smith’s demands put him between a rock and a hard place. He can’t afford to dawdle lest the minority of independence supporters in Alberta continues to grow.
Some of Smith’s demands could be met quickly and relatively easily. The much-despised Impact Assessment Act could be repealed and replaced with an updated version allowing more realistic timelines for pipeline projects. The tanker ban has always been more a symbolic policy than a working one, as no Canadian ports are capable of loading or unloading oil tankers North of Vancouver. It could be lifted without fears of tanker ships suddenly running up and down the coastline. Some of the clean energy regulations can be lifted as well.
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Some of Premier Smith’s other demands are trickier.
Smith has demanded guarantees for pipeline access to the East Coast of Canada. While polls indicate Quebec has become more supportive of the concept of a pipeline crossing the province of late, the political leadership in Quebec remains strongly opposed. If Carney promises pipeline access East, he could be trading a Western unity crisis for a Quebec unity crisis.
The Liberal government has been politically invested in its net-zero car mandate for years. If it lifts the mandate as per Smith’s demands, it will lose face and could run up against issues with subsidized auto part manufacturers. The proposed emissions cap is a strong line in the sand for Smith as well, and it looks unlikely the federal government is willing to move on it.
The Angus Reid poll shows support for provincial independence among UCP supporters at 65 percent. In Saskatchewan, support for independence among Sask. Party supporters is at 59 percent. The premiers of both provinces may not personally support separatism, but they can’t afford to ignore the wishes of such large segments of their bases.
In allowing referendums on independence in Alberta and possibly Saskatchewan, Scott Moe and Danielle Smith are providing an outlet for secessionist-minded citizens while not committing to the concept. Smith has said a referendum will prevent separatist parties from forming and growing within the province.
With independence referendums pending on the horizon for a year or more, it is likely that the issue of Western alienation will not be cooling down any time soon. Separatism won’t simply be an expression of rage shortly after an election outcome, but will establish itself as a Western movement even if it only has minority support.
Canada is deeply, regionally divided, and the political posturing of the Western premiers and the prime minister over the next few years will impact the future of the nation. There has never been a referendum held on independence in the West, and ignoring the possibility of a positive vote for secession would be foolhardy.
The political leaders have a tough game to play. Carney must practice balanced, domestic diplomacy in trying to assuage Western separatism without alienating his electoral base in Eastern Canada. Smith and Moe could leverage some strong policy concessions from the federal government, but could lose support if they appear to be too supportive of separatist elements in their respective parties.
Carney has become Canada’s prime minister during a critical juncture in the country’s history. He could become a national unifier, or he could preside over the shattering of the federation.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
