Canada could be in such dire straits 15 years from now that property ownership will be generational, post-secondary education will no longer play a role in success, and impoverished Canadians will resort to illegal hunting for sustenance, a new report suggests.
The report from Policy Horizons Canada—an arm of the federal government that looks at possible future scenarios to inform policymaking and programs—warns that such a future could become a reality by 2040 if existing economic policies remain unchanged.
Titled “Future Lives: Examining Social Mobility,” the report paints a picture in which most Canadians will never get ahead no matter how hard they work.
The majority of Canadians will “find themselves stuck in the socioeconomic conditions of their birth and many face the very real possibility of downward social mobility,” says the report, which was first covered by Blacklock’s Reporter.
“While this is neither the desired nor the preferred future, Policy Horizons’ strategic foresight suggests it is plausible.”
If Canada continues on its current economic path, Canadian society will be dominated by inter-generational wealth, slipping slowly back into times of old when land was owned and ruled by the aristocracy, the report predicts. Wealth and status will no longer be earned but passed down through generations.
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“Family background—especially owning property—divides the haves from the have-nots,” the authors wrote, noting that home ownership will be an unrealistic goal for most buyers without family assistance.
Some will opt for intergenerational mortgages in which multiple generations of family members live together, while others will pursue alternative household mortgages in partnership with friends.
An increasing proportion of homeowners will own rental properties, the report suggests, adding that this group will resist initiatives aimed at increasing housing availability or implementing rent controls. That disparity will become a catalyst for social, economic, and political discord between renters and homeowners, the report says.
It also predicts that post-secondary education will be beyond the reach of everyone except the wealthy and it will be seen as a club for the “elite” rather than “a path to a successful career.”
Elitist attitudes will extend beyond the education sector with people rarely mixing with those of different socio-economic status, the report says.
As the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, more Canadians will have trouble making ends meet and may return to a live-off-the-land philosophy through small-scale agriculture, the study suggests. The poor may also resort to illegal hunting, fishing, and foraging to feed themselves and their families.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre commented on the report during an April 22 campaign stop, calling it “unbelievable.”
“What they are anticipating on the current trajectory is a total meltdown, a societal breakdown in Canada if we stay on the current track,” Poilievre said. “Why this isn’t blazing the front pages of every news outlet in the country right now is beyond me. … We have to unleash a plan for change.”
Psychological and Economic Toll
As more people struggle to afford rent, bills, and groceries, the resulting stress could cause a spike in mental health issues as frustration and indifference set in, the report says.
“If people give up on attaining higher standards of living, apathy could spread to other areas of their lives,” the authors said. “Policymakers may no longer be able to take for granted that people will be motivated to better their lot.”
The value of human labour will also be diminished by 2040 because the use of artificial intelligence (AI) will be widespread, the authors say.
Fewer jobs will be available in both creative and knowledge-based fields as a result and many people will need to work more jobs or look for side hustles to make ends meet.
As Canada’s economic and social landscape deteriorates, so too will its reputation as a country where both young people and newcomers can find happiness or success.
“More people in Canada, including recent immigrants, may emigrate to jurisdictions where they perceive upward social mobility and/or higher standards of living are easier to attain – even if they are not,” the report says.
“If young workers leave Canada, it may become harder to pay for the systems that support a growing number of older people.”
Concerns About the Future
While the report offers a worst-case scenario for Canada in 2040, the authors suggest it is time to think ahead to avoid such a grim future, noting that declining social mobility has the potential to create major issues for citizens and policymakers alike.
“Upward social mobility may never be as difficult or rare as suggested in this scenario,” the authors write. “However, social stagnation and downward mobility are plausible elements of the future. Exploring them supports anticipatory governance by helping policymakers think through potential challenges and opportunities.”
There was no indication in the report regarding who commissioned the research or the rationale for it. The report also did not specifically cite any particular policy that is to blame.
But a 2022 study by Policy Horizons referenced by the most recent report indicated that the rising cost of housing and other goods is contributing to “economic volatility.”
Affordability, elevated inflation rates, and high household debt-to-income ratios are all issues that need to be addressed, the 2022 report says.
Socioeconomic conditions could continue to worsen, especially when coupled with “disruptions” that Policy Horizons identified as the most likely to have an impact on Canada in the future, the latest report says, referencing a study it released last year.
The 2024 report identified 18 “disruptions” that could have a significant impact for Canada, citing the rise of AI eroding trust in online information, the impact of climate change on the environment, and a rise in natural disasters that stretch emergency response resources.
Also in the top 10 were cyberattacks, demand for natural resources such as water and critical minerals outpacing supply, Canadians finding themselves in lower socioeconomic conditions than their parents, the collapse of the health-care system, and authoritarian regimes vastly outnumbering democracies worldwide.
Other disruptions included an increase in antimicrobial resistance, basic needs going unmet, people’s biological data being monetized, civil war erupting in the U.S., immigrants shunning Canada, indigenous peoples governing their own territories, infrastructure and properties becoming uninsurable, and world war.
The report pushes for increased preparedness among Canadian policymakers.
“Being aware of possible future disruptions and prepared for various scenarios can help mitigate risk and help anticipate what is on the horizon,” the authors say. “While the disruptions in this report are not guaranteed to take place, they are plausible—and overlooking them may carry risks in various policy areas.”
