Commentary
History has a way of repeating itself, and the parallels between the tail end of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s tenure and his father Pierre Trudeau’s are striking.
In February 1984, Pierre Trudeau took his famous “walk in the snow” and announced he would resign as Prime Minister once the Liberal Party selected a new leader. Trudeau had ridden a wave of popular support for over a decade, but Canadians were ready to move on by then. Polls indicated the Liberals faced a crushing defeat if an election were to be held with Trudeau as leader. Pressure was mounting from within the party, and Trudeau could face a revolt if he insisted upon remaining.
The Liberal leadership race was held for over four months while Pierre Trudeau remained the prime minister. During that period, the polls began to shift as Canadians warmed up to the Liberals with the prospect of new leadership. By the time John Turner was selected as the new leader, the party’s internal polls indicated the Liberals had regained a slight lead in popular support. Emboldened by the bounce, Turner called a snap election—which led to a landslide win for Brian Mulroney’s Conservatives in September 1984.
During his last months in office, Pierre Trudeau went on an unprecedented binge, handing out over 200 patronage appointments to Liberal Party insiders and MPs. Turner, upon becoming Prime Minister, appointed 70 more Liberals to plum positions apparently due to an agreement he had signed with Trudeau. The brazenness of the appointments infuriated Canadians and the issue dragged on Turner’s campaign. During the 1984 election debate, Turner was eviscerated when he said “I had no option” with regards to the appointments, and Mulroney famously responded, “You had an option, sir—to say ‘no.’” Turner was left speechless and his campaign declined from there.
In his final weeks in office, Justin Trudeau will surely make some appointments on his way out the door. Prime ministers in Canada can appoint over 3,100 positions including ambassadorships, senators, heads of Crown corporations, and judicial seats. That ability empowers prime ministers to maintain party support within and outside of the caucus. It’s a powerful tool, and prime ministers from every party have used it. When it is abused, as it was in Pierre Trudeau’s final days, citizens become upset. Will Justin Trudeau repeat his father’s actions or will he have learned from them?
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Justin Trudeau’s leadership in the Liberal Party has been tenuous for over a year. He quelled budding caucus revolts successfully until the end of 2024 when Chrystia Freeland’s resignation forced him into a corner. Trudeau is sure to have made many promises of soft landings and plum appointments to have stayed in power during 2024. The time to follow through on promised positions is fast approaching for him.
With the sudden announcement of billions of dollars for a high-speed rail line between Toronto and Quebec City, as well as the recognition of aboriginal title over the Haida Gwaii archipelago in B.C., it appears Trudeau is laying the foundation for legacy projects for himself. Will there be more high-spending capital projects announced in the coming weeks? Further, will there be a raft of patronage appointments?
Trudeau’s resignation came reluctantly. The question now is whether he will still act with the interest of the Liberal Party in mind, or will he leave the next leader with a political anvil upon his neck as his father did.
Whoever the next Liberal leader is will have a difficult balancing act to maintain as they head toward an election. They must distance themselves from the prior administration, while not torching it. Mark Carney appears to be the most likely contender for the Liberal leadership, but his close association with Trudeau marks him as a party insider rather than a fresh face. If Carney finds himself laden with controversial political appointments and unbudgeted capital projects put in place by the outgoing prime minister, he will be in a very similar spot to John Turner in 1984.
Would Carney reverse some of the appointments and cancel projects?
Such a move would infuriate Trudeau loyalists and could lead to internecine battles as an election approaches. If Carney accepts Trudeau’s outgoing appointments and projects without question, Pierre Poilievre will surely pummel him over it right until election day.
The electoral fate of the next Liberal leader is very much in the hands of Justin Trudeau. If he can resist the temptation to bind the next leader with patronage appointments and spending initiatives, that leader could possibly turn the party’s fortunes around.
If Trudeau continues to follow the historical path of his father, though, the next Liberal leader will very likely be the next John Turner of Canadian history.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
