British Columbia’s finance minister says she expects uncertainty and instability over the four years of Donald Trump’s U.S. presidency, but private-sector forecasters have indicated the province is in a good position to meet the challenges of Trump’s promised tariffs on Canadian goods.
Brenda Bailey says in a statement that the Economic Forecast Council for B.C. has indicated the uncertainty of “threats from the south” may make the budget process more challenging than usual.
But she says the council tells her the diversity of B.C.’s economy makes it “well-positioned” to attract new investment and development opportunities.
The council consisting of 13 independent forecasters from across Canada has held its annual meeting with Bailey, and the Ministry of Finance statement says B.C.’s outlook is affected by global and domestic forces, including federal immigration targets.
Still, the statement says the forecasters “reaffirmed that in the absence of tariffs, they had expected steady economic growth for B.C.”
It says the council estimates that real GDP in B.C. grew by 1.2 percent last year, higher than the province’s projection in the fall 2024 economic update.
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The council indicated a diverse export network and resource-rich environment give B.C. an advantage over other provinces, and some members were “encouraged” by the province’s work to address housing supply, affordability and skills training, the statement says.
In early January, it says the council forecasted real GPD growth of 1.9 percent in 2025 and steady growth of two percent annually on average through 2029, although the projections do not fully reflect the impact of potential U.S. tariffs.
The council will have an opportunity to revise its forecasts before B.C. is set to release its provincial budget on March 4, it adds.
