Justin Trudeau’s resignation has had minimal impact on the Liberals Party’s declining electoral prospects, while the Conservatives continue to maintain one of the largest leads the party has ever had, new polling suggests.
Support for the Liberals has remained flat at 20 percent while Conservative support continues to increase, up one point since December to 46 percent, according to numbers released Jan. 8 by Ipsos. The survey, which was conducted between Jan. 6 and Jan. 7, placed the NDP at 17 percent, down three points since last month.
“Conservatives are still on track to win a decisive victory if an election were held tomorrow, leading by 26 points against the Liberals,” Ipsos Public Affairs Global CEO Darrell Bricker said in a report on the survey results. “The Conservative lead is consistent across age, gender, education level and income groups.”
Trudeau held a press conference outside his Ottawa residence on Jan. 6 to announce he would step down as prime minister and Liberal leader when a replacement is chosen. Trudeau also announced that Gov. Gen. Mary Simon has prorogued Parliament at his request, suspending all House of Commons proceedings until March 24.
Fifty-seven percent of respondents said Trudeau’s resignation would do little to convince them to give the Liberals a chance in the upcoming election. Twenty percent were undecided and 23 percent said they would consider voting Liberal now that Trudeau will be out of the picture, which is three points higher than the current vote intention.
“This suggests a new leader may not be able to immediately resurrect party fortunes,” Bricker said, noting that 86 percent of Canadians “believe the Liberals will still struggle at the next election.”
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A total of 77 percent also said Trudeau’s resignation is too little, too late, he added.
The latest numbers from Abacus Data tell a similar story. A survey on the evening of Jan. 6 and throughout the day Jan. 7 found Trudeau’s resignation announcement did nothing to change voter intent.
If an election were held now, the Conservatives would garner 47 percent of the vote compared to the Liberals at 20 percent, and the NDP at 18 percent, Abacus found.
The results suggest the “largest lead we have ever measured in 14+ years for the Conservatives,” Abacus Data CEO David Coletto said in a Jan. 8 social media post.
More than 80 percent of the Canadians polled said they approved of Trudeau’s decision to step down, the Ipsos poll found. Fifty-one percent said they “strongly” approved the move while the remaining 30 percent said they “somewhat approved.”
On the flip side, 19 percent of respondents said they either strongly or somewhat disapproved of Trudeau’s decision. Thirty percent of Liberal voters disapproved of his resignation compared to 12 percent of Conservatives, the poll found.
Ipsos survey respondents were also asked to grade the prime minister’s performance over his more than nine-year term.
Thirty-eight percent of Canadians gave Trudeau an “F” when rating his overall performance and 15 percent gave him a D.
A total of 20 percent gave him a C and 16 percent a B. Only 4 percent gave him an A.
Preferred Replacements
Former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland is the most favoured potential replacement for Trudeau, with 29 percent expressing a positive opinion of her, Ipsos found. Twenty-four percent said they would vote for the Liberal Party if she were its leader.
Freeland stepped down from cabinet Dec. 16 after posting a resignation letter on social media that criticized Trudeau’s policies. Her exit as deputy prime minister and finance minister reignited calls from within the party for Trudeau to step down. Those calls intensified over the Christmas break and led to his resignation at the beginning of the week.
Freeland has yet to speak publicly about any intentions to run.
The second choice for Canadians was former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney, although he was well behind Freeland at 17 percent. All of the Ipsos survey respondents who picked him as the best Liberal leader said they would vote for the party with him at the helm.
Carney has said he would consider a bid for the leadership “over the coming few days.”
Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly was the third most popular pick with 15 percent support and voter intent. Joly has yet to confirm whether she will throw her hat in the ring.
Former B.C. Premier Christy Clark was the fourth pick with 12 percent support and 13 percent voter intent. Clark, who served as premier from 2011 to 2017, has publicly expressed interest in the top job in the past but has yet to make a formal announcement on whether she will run.
Dominic LeBlanc, who was named finance minister after Freeland’s exit from cabinet, garnered 11 percent support but 13 percent voter intent. He announced Jan. 8 he would not participate in the race.
“While I am extremely grateful for the encouragement and the expressions of support I have received from caucus colleagues and Liberals across the country, I have decided not to be a candidate in the Liberal Party of Canada’s upcoming leadership race,” LeBlanc said.
Transport Minister Anita Anand was also on the list, with 9 percent support and 13 percent voter intent. Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne also had 9 percent support but 11 percent voter intent. Neither has committed to running.
Last on the list was former Housing Minister Sean Fraser with 6 percent support and 11 percent voter intent. Fraser took himself out of the running before the race began by announcing his resignation from cabinet Dec. 16. He said he wanted to spend more time with his family and would not seek re-election.
