As Prime Minister Justin Trudeau takes a holiday break to reportedly reflect on his future, his former top adviser Gerald Butts says Trudeau may soon be stepping down.
Butts, who now works for the think tank Eurasia Group, published an article on Dec. 27 going over the political saga of the last weeks around Chrystia Freeland’s resignation from cabinet and the future of the Liberal Party.
“If, as is now widely expected, Mr. Trudeau’s resignation is imminent, the only way forward is a real leadership race,” Butts wrote on his Substack.
Butts argued against the Liberal caucus anointing Freeland as the new leader after she quit in dramatic fashion on Dec. 16, hours before she was scheduled to deliver the Fall Economic Statement.
Freeland publicized her resignation letter to Trudeau, in which she accuses him of using “costly political gimmicks” when the country should be fiscally responsible to prepare for a trade war with the incoming U.S. administration. Freeland also wrote Trudeau was stripping her of the finance portfolio.
Butts said Freeland’s team now believes she will be thanked with Trudeau’s job after having done the Liberal Party and the country a “favour by ringing a loud buzzer alarm into the ear of a Prime Minister who was sleepwalking toward electoral oblivion.”
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“I’m not so sure,” he added.
Whereas Freeland attempted to distance herself from Trudeau in her resignation letter, saying they’ve been “at odds” over a number of weeks on how the “best path forward for Canada,” Butts remarked the two politicians’ trajectories have long been closely linked.
“Chrystia Freeland was the first person recruited to Team Trudeau to help shape that agenda and make it real for people,” Butts wrote about how the Liberal Party soared back to power in 2015 promising to boost the middle class.
Butts, who served as principal secretary to Trudeau from 2015 to 2019, added he had not expected the political partnership between Freeland and Trudeau would “end in tears.”
This development makes it more likely Trudeau won’t lead the Liberal Party in the next election, Butts said, with the election now likely coming sooner and with greater odds of a Conservative majority.
Trudeau and Freeland “have put their party right back into the position in which they found it,” he said. The Liberal Party had been reduced to 34 seats in the 2011 election, amid the NDP “orange wave.”
Running Again
Freeland has not spoken to media after Dec. 16, but she said in her resignation letter she will run in the next election. This is a different path than other ministers who have recently left cabinet and will quit federal politics after the next election.
Trudeau has also not commented publicly on his future, but it was reported by MPs after the Liberal caucus meeting he attended on the evening of Dec. 16 that he is taking time to reflect on the matter.
Pressure has been building on Trudeau to step down since the Liberal Party lost a stronghold riding to the Tories in a Toronto byelection in June. Since then, the party also lost a Montreal stronghold in September.
This led to a mini-caucus revolt in October, with 23 MPs presenting a letter to Trudeau asking for his resignation.
That number is now reportedly much higher, with some MPs saying the majority of caucus wants him gone.
Some Liberal MPs like Anthony Housefather are pressing Trudeau to step down so that the next federal election is not a referendum on the prime minister. Polls have the Liberals trailing the Tories by over 20 points, putting the Conservatives in firm majority territory.
Trudeau has several options to choose from in whether he decides to resign or stay on, including the prorogation of Parliament. He is facing opposition parties intent on making the government fall once the House of Commons reconvenes on Jan. 27.
