Commentary
The post-election tone from Prime Minister Carney regarding the United States has changed from the adversarial and provocative “elbows up” theme maintained during the campaign. Many Canadian counter-tariffs imposed on American products were quietly dropped, and Carney’s meeting with President Trump was congenial. The Carney government is becoming pragmatic in the trade war rather than aggressive now that it is no longer chasing votes.
While many of President Trump’s accusations against Canada were bombastic or even untrue, such as the allegation that the USA subsidizes Canada to the tune of $200 billion per year, Trump has a valid point when noting Canada doesn’t pull its weight when it comes to defence spending. Canada has long been an international laggard when it comes to NATO commitments for defence spending. While Canada is supposed to spend 2 percent of its GDP on defence, spending has languished at 1.3 percent, with lukewarm commitments made to reach the 2 percent mark by 2032. The United States and other NATO members have long been critical of Canada’s lack of commitment.
Trump’s proposed Golden Dome defence system may provide an opportunity for Carney to both quickly reach Canada’s defence spending requirements and pacify Trump. Trump has invited Canada to invest and participate in the program in his blunt manner, and Carney has expressed an interest in taking part in the program in his non-committal manner.
Could Carney be keeping his powder dry in order to make a larger announcement after or during the NATO summit being held in the Netherlands in June?
Carney referenced the summit as part of the reason his government won’t be releasing a budget until fall. That implies he anticipates some large spending commitments being made during the gathering. It does provide his government an early opportunity to assure NATO members that Canada will quickly be pulling its weight within the alliance.
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Canada’s military is in dire condition. The equipment is antiquated, the structure is top-heavy, and it is even estimated that 75 percent of its members are overweight. It will take years of procurement efforts and managerial changes to the culture of Canada’s military forces to bring them back into a combat-ready condition. This shift in military management must happen in the long term, but in the short term, the Golden Dome could allow Canada to quickly and productively participate in North American defence.
Canada’s geography makes it an essential partner if the Golden Dome program is to be effective. Many, if not most, of the prospective airborne threats to the USA would have to traverse Canadian airspace in an attack. If Canada isn’t part of the program, the Golden Dome will have a rather large hole in it. In bringing Canada under the dome, Carney has a relatively inexpensive way to participate in the defence system. It may come at a political cost, however.
With the strained relationship between Canada and the United States in the last few months, citizens may not be receptive to integrating more deeply into American initiatives—particularly ones which may impact national sovereignty and independence from the USA. Carney will have to make a strong case to his supporters on why the nation should join the USA on such a venture.
The viability of the plan could be questionable as well. Trump has stated the program would cost US$175 billion and take three years to implement. Some analysts estimate it could take 20 years and cost as much as US$1 trillion. In addition, it may not be effective. President Ronald Reagan’s “Star Wars” initiative never became a practical program.
The ethical questions of weaponizing space could trouble peace-loving Canadians and Americans alike, though the program is ostensibly to be defensive in nature.
The nature of conflicts and militaries has changed dramatically. Unmanned drones and guided long-range missiles have taken large roles in warfare while ground troops and localized weapons such as tanks are more limited in need and efficacy. Canada’s defensive needs could be much more effectively served by an overarching dome-style system rather than with increasing conventional armed forces on the ground.
The Distant Early Warning Line (DEW line) system of radar stations and small bases in the Canadian North was a Cold War initiative involving the integration of Canadian and American forces. National identity and sovereignty weren’t threatened through the alliance, nor does it need to be with a more modern Golden Dome.
Prime Minister Carney may have an opportunity in front of him to end the embarrassing shortfall in meeting NATO targets for defence spending while healing the relationship with the United States with one move. It will take careful negotiation and communication with citizens to do it right, though. The NATO summit in June could reveal his plan.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
