News Analysis
After winning an election campaign in which he repeatedly said the traditional relationship with the United States is “over,” Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will be at the White House this week to meet President Donald Trump.
Trump has been complimentary of Carney both before and after his election win on April 28, calling him “very nice,” but Carney has said the discussions in the U.S. capital could be thorny.
“I go there with the expectation of constructive, difficult, but constructive discussions,” Carney said on May 2 during a press conference in Ottawa.
Carney was responding to questions from reporters on how he would avoid a similar situation to that of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during his meeting with Trump in February. Zelenskyy had clashed with Trump and U.S. Vice President JD Vance in front of the cameras in the Oval Office during talks on the Russia-Ukraine war, leading to a temporary breakdown in relations.
The tensions are not as high with Canada, but Carney could find himself facing Trump in the Oval Office while taking questions from reporters about Canadian sovereignty.
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“You go to these meetings well prepared, understanding the objectives of your counterpart and always acting in the best interest of Canada, and we’ll go from there,” Carney said about his strategy to avoid a public confrontation in the May 6 meeting.
Carney said that the seniority of the members of the Trump administration expected to participate in the meeting shows the “seriousness of the discussions” to take place.
The prime minister also said good negotiators respect strength and Trump is “one of the best negotiators.”
“That’s why we’re building Canada strong,” Carney said.
Messaging
In the months leading up to their first meeting, both leaders have maintained their messaging about the state of the relationship between the two countries.
During an interview with NBC’s Meet the Press aired on May 4, Trump said he will “always talk about” making Canada the 51st U.S. state when asked if he would raise the topic during Carney’s visit.
Trump repeated his opinion that the United States doesn’t need what Canada exports, such as energy, cars, and lumber. He also repeated previous comments that he considers the boundary between the countries to be an “artificial line that was drawn with a ruler many years ago.”
Trump ruled out, however, resorting to the use of military force against Canada. “I think it’s highly unlikely. I don’t see it with Canada. I just don’t see it. I have to be honest with you,” he said, adding he wouldn’t rule out using military force to take control of Greenland.
“Something could happen with Greenland, I’ll be honest. We need that for national and international security,” he said.
Carney focused heavily on Trump’s 51st state comments and U.S. tariffs during the election campaign, tapping into related anxieties and rising nationalist sentiment in Canada. He often repeated his slogan that Trump wants to “break us” so he can “own us.”
Commenting on the 51st state talk on May 2, Carney said it’s “always important to distinguish want from reality” and that what Canadians “clearly have stated, virtually without exception, it this will never, ever happen.”
He also repeated that the “old relationship” between Canada and the United States, “based on steadily increasing integration, is over.”
“The questions now are how our nations will cooperate in the future, and where we in Canada will move on,” he said.
Interdependence
This will be Carney’s third foreign trip, after visiting France and the United Kingdom immediately after becoming prime minister in mid-March. The visits were meant to strengthen trade and security ties with longstanding allies and signal that Canada was looking towards Europe amid strained relations with its southern neighbour.
Trump and Carney have each been saying that their respective countries can manage without each other, but in practice there is high interdependence. Multiple U.S. states have Canada as their biggest client and while the United States has vast energy resources, it imports a sizeable amount of crude oil, with Canada being the top source. The auto industry across the border has also been closely integrated for decades.
Rebuilding the U.S. industrial base and reducing reliance on foreign energy are, however, core objectives of Trump, which impacts Canada. Carney and other Canadian leaders recognize this, and agree on the need to boost internal trade and diversify markets.
As these policies are advanced amid gloomy messaging, Carney and Trump agreed in late March to begin comprehensive negotiations on trade and other files following the Canadian election.
Carney said he believes Trump will seek in negotiations to rebalance trade with Canada, stop fentanyl from entering the United States, and see Ottawa increase its military spending. The prime minister said those objectives, however, are “volatile.”
Canada is currently slapped with several different sets of U.S. tariffs, some accompanied by exemptions for goods covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada free trade deal.
Canada was not impacted by the April 2 “reciprocal tariffs,” but is impacted by U.S. tariffs related to border security and fentanyl concerns, tariffs on steel and aluminum, and on the auto industry. Trump also announced his intention on May 4 to impose a 100 percent tariff on foreign-made movies, which would impact the Canadian film industry.
Carney had sought a “strong mandate” to deal with Trump but said he doesn’t believe his minority government will be an impediment.
“It’s a strong mandate for me and regarding negotiations with the Americans, it’s clear for Mr. Trump who is Canada’s prime minister,” Carney said.
The Liberals fell short a few seats of winning a majority but Carney cited the high vote total for the Liberals and having won majorities in seven of 10 provinces.
Trump told Meet the Press Carney had a “close victory” which will “make things a little bit difficult, I think, for him to run.”
“But he nevertheless had a victory, and he’s a very nice man,” he said.
