More than 60 percent of Canadians say Western separatism is a subject that should be taken seriously, but an equal number say the topic should not be on the table during a federal election.
A Nanos Research survey of 1,345 Canadians found that 62 percent of those polled say Western separatist movements in provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan should be taken “seriously” or “somewhat seriously.”
The survey also found that 61 percent say it is a “poor” or “very poor” time for leaders to tackle the issue. Only 32 percent of those surveyed said the timing for the conversation was “good” or “very good.”
“A majority of Canadians across all regions and demographic groups believe Western separatism should be taken seriously/somewhat seriously,” chief data scientist Nik Nanos said. “This intensity increases among committed Conservative and Bloc voters.”
More than 60 percent of residents surveyed in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba said Western separatism should be regarded as a serious issue or one that deserves some attention.
The number rises to 70 percent among Conservative voters in the Prairies.
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Tory voters overall consider the topic an important one, with 71 percent across the country saying the issue should be taken seriously or somewhat seriously. A large number of individuals who support the Bloc Québécois expressed opinions similar to those who vote Conservative, with 74 percent describing Western separatism as a serious topic.
That number falls to approximately 57 percent among Liberal voters and hovers at 54 percent among those who vote NDP, the survey found.
Older Canadians were also more likely to identify Western separatism as a serious issue compared to young people. Nearly 67 percent of those in the 55 and older bracket considered the issue serious or somewhat serious compared to 55 percent of those in the 18 to 34 demographic. The 35 to 54 group sided more with the older age group, with 64.5 percent considering the topic serious.
The issue was more evenly divided between men and women. More than 60 percent of individuals from both genders considered the topic to be either serious or somewhat serious.
Topic Timing
While some Canadians said now is the time to tackle separation issues, the majority of Canadians disagree, Nanos said.
“Although a minority opinion, people living in the Prairies and British Columbia are comparatively more likely to think that this election is the time to talk about this compared to the rest of Canada,” he said.
Nearly 42 percent of residents surveyed in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba said the federal election campaign was the best time to address the issue compared to 34 percent in B.C., 31 percent in Atlantic Canada, 30 percent in Quebec, and 27 percent in Ontario.
The discussion on Western provinces separating from the federation has been amplified in recent weeks as Mark Carney’s Liberals have risen in the polls.
A recent opinion piece from former Reform Party Leader Preston Manning published in The Globe and Mail said a Carney win would fuel Western secession, leading both Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to call for unity across the country.
In recent months the polls have shown the Liberals bouncing back from an all-time low when Justin Trudeau was prime minister to eliminating the 20-point lead once held by the Conservatives.
An Iposos poll from April 13 had the Liberals in top spot with 42 percent of vote intention compared to 36 percent for the Tories. The Conservatives’ fall in the polls have been in sharp contrast, however, to consistently strong attendance at Poilievre campaign rallies nationwide.
