Canada’s main stock index rose Monday, led by strength in energy and industrial stocks as the price of oil climbed, while U.S. markets were mixed as investors closed out a volatile month and nervously eyed impending tariffs.
Markets started the day in the red before steadily climbing throughout the day.
“We are in this in-between phase. We don’t know what the next move is,” said Konstantin Boehmer, head of fixed income and portfolio manager at Mackenzie Investments.
“Clearly, we have a big day coming up.”
That big day is Wednesday, April 2, which U.S. President Donald Trump has dubbed “Liberation Day.” A slew of tariffs against Canada and other countries are expected to be enacted after a month of uncertainty marked by delays, exemptions and newly announced duties on various imports or industries.
“I think collectively as a market, we’re still unsure of how serious they are with all of their policies,” Boehmer said.
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The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 158.35 points at 24,917.50 to close the first quarter of 2025.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 417.86 points at 42,001.76. The S&P 500 index was up 30.91 points at 5,611.85, while the Nasdaq composite was down 23.70 points at 17,299.29 as big tech stocks dragged on the index.
Markets have swung wildly all month, reacting strongly in both directions to headlines about tariffs, but Wall Street is decidedly down from where it began 2024, with the S&P 500 down 4.6 percent for the first three months of the year. The S&P/TSX composite is up 0.77 percent on the quarter.
Gold, meanwhile, has had a strong couple of months, surpassing US$3,000 earlier this month. The June gold contract was up US$36 at US$3,150.30 an ounce on Monday.
Gold often rises during uncertain times, as it’s seen by investors as a safe haven, said Boehmer.
“Given that there is plenty of uncertainty around, I think gold is coming back into the forefront,” he said.
Though the U.S. economy started the year on strong footing—stronger than the Canadian economy, which faltered faster under interest rate hikes—Boehmer said recent events have the odds of a recession rising. Trump’s tariffs are widely seen as inflationary while also expected to weigh on growth for both Canada and the U.S.
Soft economic indicators in the U.S. like consumer and business sentiment surveys are already showing the signs, Boehmer said.
“I would pay attention to those soft indicators. They will tell us that things aren’t going so well,” he said.
Goldman Sachs now puts the chances of a recession in the next year at 35 percent, up from an earlier forecast of 20 percent.
The Canadian dollar traded for 69.56 cents US compared with 69.90 cents US on Friday.
The May crude oil contract was up US$2.12 at US$71.48 per barrel and the May natural gas contract was up five cents US at US$4.12 per mmBTU.
The May copper contract was down 10 cents US at US$5.03 a pound.
