Experts are linking rising gasoline prices in the U.S. northeast to President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canadian energy imports, but they warn the trend may also hurt Atlantic Canada’s energy producers.
According to Canada’s consulate general in Boston, eight of every 10 cars on the road in New England uses fuel from Canadian petroleum producers, and 90 percent of the jet fuel used at Logan Airport in Boston also comes from Canada.
One of the region’s biggest suppliers of gasoline is the Irving Oil refinery in Saint John, N.B.—the largest refinery in Canada.
“Maine and much of New England are likely to see much larger (gasoline price) increases than the rest of the states simply because of their reliance on refined fuels from Canada,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at Dallas-based GasBuddy, said in an interview Wednesday.
“Nowhere else in the United States do we see a situation where customers are reliant on Canada for refined products.”
As of Wednesday, the American Automobile Association’s gas price tracker showed a two-cent per gallon average increase in Maine in a single day.
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De Haan predicted gas prices would rise an average of 20 cents per gallon in the U.S. northeast over the next few weeks as Trump’s 10 percent energy tariff is passed on to consumers.
As well, De Haan said the northeast states won’t immediately find an alternative to Irving Oil’s Saint John Refinery, which ships 80 percent of its refined products south of the border.
But the analyst said that could change over time if buyers shift to refineries in Europe, Nigeria or from within the United States.
Patrick Woodcock, president of the Maine State Chamber of Commerce and ex-director of the Maine Energy Office, said prices for home heating fuel are already shooting up across the state.
“There’s no other nearby refinery that really produces heating oil,” he said, refering to the Irving rifinery. “We also have extensive natural gas interconnections with New Brunswick and with Quebec, so … I do hope this is resolved quickly. This is a real disruption to what has been a really strong relationship.”
Mark Finley, a fellow in energy and global oil at Rice University in Houston, said Trump’s trade war could actually drive down oil prices because of fears that a looming recession would decrease demand for fuel. He noted that on Wednesday, the price of crude hit its lowest point so far this year.
Robert Huish, a professor at Dalhousie University in Halifax, said it won’t be easy for Atlantic Canada’s energy exporters to find alternative markets to the New England states if buyers there find other suppliers.
“The City of Saint John is currently positioned to export energy to the United States,” said Huish, who works in the department of international development studies.
“Can we rotate it to produce for Canadian or European partners? It’s going to be tough if the United States succeeds in replacing Canadian imports with a domestic supply (of energy).”
Michelle Robichaud, president of the non-profit Atlantica Centre for Energy, said companies in Atlantic Canada’s energy sector are worried.
The centre represents Irving Oil, NB Power, Nova Scotia Power, Maritimes and Northeast Pipeline and several other energy-related businesses and organizations.
“What we do know is that it’s going to be uncomfortable for the next four years, both in Canada and the U.S., and so industry here is considering how to reduce the risk,” she said Tuesday. “We hope that doesn’t mean moving jobs or companies into the United States.”
As of last year, Canada was the No. 1 supplier of petroleum to United States, ahead of Mexico and Saudi Arabia, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Meanwhile, the Canadian government says New England depends on Canada for its energy needs with $10.2 billion worth of fuel oil, natural gas and electricity imported to the region each year.
