The threat of tariffs is leading to a pullback in borrowing as businesses and consumers wait to see what comes, said Scotiabank.
Kicking off first-quarter results for Canadian banks, Scotiabank moderately boosted its provisions for bad loans but has held off on a larger allocation because of the lack of clarity of what might happen.
“It’s difficult to act on headlines and tweets,” said chief risk officer Phil Thomas on an analyst call Tuesday.
If tariffs come, as U.S. President Donald Trump said again on Monday they would, the bank would have to set aside much more capital in the second quarter in anticipation of the economic hit the border taxes would have on businesses and consumers.
“It’ll be meaningful but manageable,” he said.
Even just the threat of tariffs though has caused borrowers to become more hesitant, said Thomas.
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“Whether it’s on the retail side, the corporate side, the commercial side, you see a bit of a stasis right now. And so it’s causing people to sort of pause and think about what they’re going to do.”
The bank’s total provisions for potentially bad loans was at around $1.16 billion at quarter end, up $132 million from the previous quarter driven in part by its Canadian banking division.
If tariffs come in, which could happen as early as next week, Scotiabank would see a sizable add to its provisions, said Thomas.
The bank had a capital buffer ratio of 15.1 percent at the end of last quarter, well above the regulatory minimum of 11.5 percent, leaving it in a good place to see through the risks, said Thomas.
Capital was high as Scotiabank reported a net income of $993 million or 66 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Jan. 31, down from $2.20 billion or $1.68 per diluted share in the same quarter a year earlier.
The results in the most recent quarter included a $1.36-billion impairment charge related to the sale of its business in Colombia, Costa Rica and Panama.
Revenue totalled $9.37 billion, up from $8.43 billion in the same quarter last year.
On an adjusted basis, Scotiabank says it earned $1.76 per share, up from an adjusted profit of $1.69 per share a year earlier.
The average analyst estimate was for an adjusted profit of $1.65 per share, according to according to LSEG Data & Analytics.
Scotiabank says its Canadian banking operations earned $913 million in net income attributable to equity holders, down from $973 million a year ago, while its international banking business earned $651 million in net income attributable to equity holders, down from $713 million.
The bank’s global wealth management business earned $407 million in net income attributable to equity holders, up from $330 million in the same quarter last year.
Scotiabank’s global banking and markets business earned $517 million in net income attributable to equity holders, up from $388 million a year ago.
