Canada would need to build 840 additional solar power generation stations or 16 nuclear power plants to meet the federal government’s goal of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, according to a new study.
Published by the Fraser Institute on Feb. 11, the report says meeting the predicted future electricity demand with these low-emissions sources will be a “daunting challenge and is likely impossible within the 2050 timeframe.”
Ottawa’s Clean Electricity Regulations, finalized in December 2024, seeks to support investment in low-emissions electricity generation with the goal of achieving a net-zero emissions economy by 2050. The regulations set limits on emissions from electricity generation units that burn fossil fuels and include credit systems that allow these units to exceed their emissions limits.
Meanwhile, Canada’s electricity generation capacity will need to significantly expand to meet growing demand, particularly due to population growth and the shift to electrified transportation, according to the report “Rapid Decarbonization of Electricity and Future Supply Constraints.” Citing government projections, the report said Canada will need an additional 684 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity generation capacity by 2050—more than the country’s total electricity production of 625.7 TWh in 2021.
“To meet existing and future electricity demand with low-emitting or zero-emitting sources within the government’s timeline, Canada would need to rapidly build infrastructure on a scale never before seen in the country’s history,” said Kenneth Green, senior fellow at the Fraser Institute and author of the report, in a press release.
Green’s analysis compares the construction timeline and scale of infrastructure required to meet Canada’s future energy needs using different low-emission sources. To generate the necessary electricity by 2050 using solar power alone, Canada would need to build 840 solar power stations the size of Alberta’s Travers Solar Project, the report said. Located in southern Alberta, the Travers project utilizes over 1.3 million solar panels, spread over 3,300 acres of land.
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With each project taking roughly two years to complete, this would require a total of 1,680 years of combined construction time, the report said.
If relying solely on wind energy, Canada would need to construct 574 wind power installations the size of Quebec’s Seigneurie de Beaupré wind farm, which would take 1,150 years of construction time, assuming each project would take about two years to complete, the report estimated.
Similarly, depending entirely on hydropower would require the construction of 134 facilities the size of British Columbia’s Site C power station, each taking about seven years to build, the report said. This would result in 938 years of combined construction time.
For nuclear power, the report estimated Canada would need to build 16 nuclear plants the size of Ontario’s Bruce Nuclear Generating Station to meet the demand. With each plant taking roughly seven years to construct, the total construction time would be 112 years.
“When Canadians assess the viability of the federal government’s emission-reduction timelines, they should understand the practical reality of electricity generation in Canada,” Green said in the release.
When unveiling the finalized Clean Electricity Regulations, the federal government highlighted nearly three years of consultations with provinces, territories, communities, and industries, saying in a December 2024 release that the policy “has the flexibility to meet rising electricity demand” amid population and economy growth.
Alberta, Canada’s largest producer of natural gas for electricity generation, announced in December 2024 that it plans to legally challenge Ottawa’s efforts to decarbonize electricity grids.
Carolina Avendano and Isaac Teo contributed to this report.
