The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting the domestic economy will grow 1.5 percent in 2025 as the potential for U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports and a pullback in immigration weigh on growth.
Cory Renner, associate director of economic forecasting at the Conference Board, says while declining interest rates have alleviated some pressure, uncertainty surrounding trade and the impact of weaker population growth are dragging on growth prospects for 2025.
The pace of growth is forecast to increase to 1.9 percent in 2026.
The report says a weaker Canadian dollar and strong demand from the U.S. should be positive for exporters, but the threat of tariffs makes the outlook for trade highly uncertain.
It also says a slowdown in population growth will impact Canada’s labour market.
U.S. President Donald Trump is threatening to impose 25 percent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico.
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