A new poll suggests the Liberals would fare better with Chrystia Freeland at the helm, although the party would continue to trail well behind the Conservatives.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on Jan. 6 he will resign as prime minister and Liberal leader after a replacement is chosen. In a survey ahead of the announcement, many Canadians identified the former finance minister as the most appropriate candidate to succeed him.
The online survey was conducted from Dec. 27 to 31, receiving responses from 2,406 members of Angus Reid’s online forum.
A recent poll conducted by the Angus Reid Institute suggested Canadians view Freeland, among five other potential candidates, as the best option to boost the beleaguered Liberal Party’s chances of avoiding a devastating defeat in the 2025 federal election.
Survey respondents were presented with six candidates: Freeland, former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne, Minister of Finance Dominic LeBlanc, and Transport Minister Anita Anand.
The majority identified Freeland as the one most likely to strengthen the party’s prospects in the next election if she were to assume the role of Liberal party leader.
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In the situation of Trudeau continuing as leader, the Liberal Party garnered just 13 percent voter intention compared to the Conservative Party’s 39 percent, the poll found.
With Freeland at the helm, the Liberal vote intention rose to 21 percent. While still less than the Conservatives’ 36 percent, it is greater than the backing for Trudeau or any of the other possible leadership contenders. Joly scored 16 percent while Carney scored 14 percent.
“In the event Freeland were to succeed as Liberal Party leader, the party’s fortunes among the total population jumps eight points to 21 percent,” a report on the poll results said.
While this offers her a large advantage over the other potential candidates, the Conservative Party “still holds a commanding advantage in all situations,” the report said. “In a faceoff against a Freeland-led Liberal Party, the CPC still hold a 15-point lead.”
The estimates were also reflected in sentiments from Liberal voters and potential Liberal supporters, the poll found. It said that 28 percent would be more likely to back the party if Freeland were the leader, while 27 percent said they “might” consider voting Liberal. Fifty-five percent said they would never consider it, no matter who the leader is.
Part of Freeland’s advantage appears to be name recognition. Only 8 percent of those polled didn’t recognize her name while 16 percent didn’t know who Joly was and 24 percent said they didn’t recognize Carney’s name. Twenty-five percent said they didn’t know who LeBlanc was, 27 percent didn’t recognize Champagne, and 28 percent didn’t recognize Anand.
Trudeau’s Next Steps
Respondents also had strong feelings about Trudeau’s next steps. Forty-six percent of those polled said they’d like to see him resign immediately and 38 percent said he should call an election to be held in February. Only 16 percent said he should stay in power as long as his minority government holds.
Liberal voters were even less likely to want Trudeau to remain as leader. Sixty percent of those surveyed want to see him step down. Only 10 percent said he should call a February election and the remaining 30 percent said he should stay on as long as his minority government goes unchallenged.
No matter who is leading the Liberals into the next election, the key to avoiding “an electoral catastrophe,” is convincing fence sitters considering the NDP to vote Liberal instead, the poll said.
“More than half of those who would definitely consider the Liberals currently lean toward Jagmeet Singh’s party,” the report said. “A smaller number but still a plurality (38%) of the ‘might consider’ group also currently support the NDP, while one-in-four of this group are initially undecided when asked how they would vote.”
